The past six months of American foreign policy have been consumed by Iran, Russia, and the fallout from the war that reshaped the Middle East. In that whirlwind, it would have been easy for Washington to lose sight of a small, landlocked country of three million people in the South Caucasus.
It hasn’t. In February, Vice President JD Vance became the highest-ranking American official ever to visit Armenia, announcing up to $9 billion in nuclear energy investment and an $11 million reconnaissance drone sale. On May 26, Secretary of State Marco Rubio stopped in Yerevan—even as Iran war negotiations have reached a critical juncture—to sign a framework agreement on the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, a strategic partnership charter, and a memorandum of understanding on critical minerals. And the following day, President Donald Trump made it personal, posting his “complete and total endorsement” of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s reelection on Truth Social.
They are right to find the time.
Armenia’s parliamentary elections on June 7 will determine whether the U.S.-brokered peace deal with Azerbaijan survives—and with it, a corridor of American strategic interest that stretches from the Mediterranean to Central Asia. The TRIPP corridor, negotiated at the White House last August, would operate under majority U.S. control, giving Washington a critical chokepoint on the Middle Corridor trade route. Paired with the critical minerals agreement, it would secure American access to Central Asian rare earths and help reduce a dangerous dependence on China—a dependence Beijing weaponized twice last year through export controls.
Pashinyan’s reelection would consolidate the peace. His defeat would almost certainly collapse it. Moscow knows this, and it has mobilized accordingly.
Russia’s interference operation in Armenia is extensively documented. In late May, a leak of documents tied to the Social Design Agency—a sanctioned Russian PR firm found to be operating under the direct control of the Russian presidential administration—revealed a document titled “Russian Armenians Decide,” designed to target the Armenian diaspora in Russia through a network of Kremlin-run media outlets. The leaked files appear to show that Sergei Kiriyenko, the first deputy chief of staff in Vladimir Putin’s presidential administration, oversees the budget. Days earlier, The Insider published an investigation identifying SVR, FSB, and GRU officers it said were stationed at the Russian Embassy in Yerevan—including the alleged SVR resident, who runs agents under diplomatic cover as a “trade representative,” and a GRU officer who previously mapped NATO targets in Belgium. The prime minister himself has been under dedicated SVR collection for years, under the internal code name “Boroda”—the Beard.
Moscow’s preferred candidate is Samvel Karapetyan, a Russian-Armenian billionaire whose Tashir Group built the headquarters of Russia’s Investigative Committee and who was named on the U.S. Treasury’s Kremlin List in 2018. According to The Insider, when Karapetyan received his Russian passport in 1999, his file carried an Interior Ministry notation—“IC FSB”—a marking typically used for individuals working under FSB supervision. A follow-up investigation traced his nominal ownership of a French Riviera villa where Alina Kabaeva, Putin’s partner, has vacationed—acquired through a €115 million loan from Gazprombank backed by negative collateral. The loan was, in substance, a gift from a state-controlled entity.
This is the standard Russian playbook, applied with unusual intensity. In Ukraine, the Kremlin captured the Moscow Patriarchate branch of the Orthodox Church and used it to delegitimize the state from within. In Armenia, the ancient Apostolic Church has been used to similar effect, with senior clergy saying the elected government “deserve to be shot.” In Moldova, the Kremlin financed the sanctioned oligarch Ilan Shor to bankroll opposition parties and buy votes. In Armenia, Karapetyan’s party—Strong Armenia—and the leaked presidential administration budget for another opposition leader, Gagik Tsarukyan, follow the identical model. On April 1, Putin personally told Pashinyan that Karapetyan should be allowed to run, despite his dual citizenship.
Russia’s campaign has been reinforced by economic coercion. Moscow has repeatedly announced import bans on Armenian agricultural products. Deputy Secretary Alexei Shevtsov warned publicly that EU accession would cost Armenia 23 percent of its GDP.
And Russia has found surprising allies. Tucker Carlson devoted 90 minutes of airtime to Karapetyan’s nephew, Narek, and to the family’s lawyer, Bob Amsterdam—who also represents the Moscow Patriarchate—linked Ukrainian Orthodox Church on behalf of the sanctioned oligarch Vadim Novinsky. On Carlson’s show, Amsterdam framed Pashinyan’s dispute with the church hierarchy as a global war on Christianity—the same narrative he deployed in Ukraine. And after Rubio’s visit, Aram Hamparian, executive director of the Armenian National Committee of America—the largest Armenian diaspora lobby—posted on X that the Secretary of State’s trip represented “straight-up foreign interference in Armenia’s elections.” Hamparian also decried Turkish attempts to “divide Yerevan from Moscow/Tehran.” The ANCA has not used comparable language to describe the Russian interference campaign.
Washington’s support for Pashinyan has been exceptional. Rubio’s visit showed Armenians that the fruits of peace have already arrived—in signed agreements, critical minerals deals, and the promise of American nuclear energy displacing Russian dependence at the Metsamor plant. Vance’s February trip demonstrated that this is not partisan enthusiasm but bipartisan strategic commitment.
Two additional steps would sharpen the message. First, the Treasury Department should designate Karapetyan under Executive Order 14024—the same authority used to sanction Georgian Dream founder Bidzina Ivanishvili for undermining democratic processes abroad for the benefit of the Russian Federation. The evidentiary basis is now public: leaked Russian presidential administration documents point to a coordinated campaign to subvert Armenia’s democratic vote, and Karapetyan is its instrument. Sanctioning him would signal that Washington treats interference in allied democracies as a sanctionable act.
Second, Washington should invest in Armenia’s burgeoning artificial intelligence sector. Armenia already punches above its weight in software engineering. A targeted investment initiative could help launch Armenia as a regional technology hub, giving the country an economic future that is neither Russian nor dependent on a single transit corridor.
Armenia’s election is days away. The Russian operation is documented, the American interest is clear, and the tools are available. What remains is the will to use them.