The Munich Security Conference (MSC) convenes this week against a backdrop of accelerating geopolitical realignment — from tensions in transatlantic relations, negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, the build-up of U.S. military forces in the Gulf of Oman, to shifting trade and technology partnerships across the Indo-Pacific and Middle East. Secretary Marco Rubio will lead the U.S. delegation, joined by more than 50 members of Congress and the governors of Michigan and California. MSC Chairman Wolfgang Ischinger has confirmed that Israelis and Palestinians, as well as top officials from Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Türkiye are expected at the conference, with “many opportunities for bilateral and multilateral meetings in Munich for the senior leaders from the region.” Iran will not be present – “we took a decision after the massacres in Iran”, Ischinger said. In sum, more than 20 heads of state, 24 prime ministers, over 60 foreign ministers, and 37 defense ministers have confirmed their participation.
Why it matters
- The MSC arrives at a pivotal moment for Middle East diplomacy. With the Abraham Accords framework continuing to evolve and IMEC still seeking momentum, ministerial sideline meetings in Munich often produce the behind-the-scenes alignment that drives formal diplomatic progress. Watch for bilateral conversations between Gulf, European, and U.S. officials on corridor connectivity, reconstruction, and normalization.
- Ukraine-Russia negotiations will dominate the main stage, but the energy dimension has direct Middle East implications. Gulf states, particularly the UAE and Saudi Arabia, will be watching closely as U.S. pressure on Russian oil revenues intensifies — creating both challenges and opportunities for regional energy exporters.
- Technology and AI governance are emerging as a central organizing theme of U.S. alliance architecture. With Pax Silica expanding and India likely to join in coming weeks, expect Munich to surface conversations about how U.S.-aligned partners in the Gulf and Europe position themselves within this framework, particularly as Gulf states accelerate their own AI and digital infrastructure investments.
- MSC’s Middle East Consultation Group will publish its key takeaways, concluding months of work that has included meetings in Egypt, Germany, India, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United States, and the UAE. The publication will feature exclusive survey data from across the region, including Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank — making it a significant reference point for corridor diplomacy heading into spring.